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亚愽彩票:足球拥抱大数据之上篇:球探和数据,两手都要抓
发布时间:2021-10-10 03:18:01

When Depay was struggling at Manchester United, his agent Keith Progsma took a radical move in order to save the Dutchman's career.

当Depay在曼联挣扎时,他的经纪人Keith Progsma采取了激进的举动,以挽救荷兰人的职业生涯。

Depay's move to Manchester United was done by Van Gaal, but he fell out of favor completely under Mourinho. In the first half of the 2016-17 season, Depay only got a few opportunities to come off the bench in the league. The Dutch's self-confidence and state have fallen to the bottom. Under this circumstance, Case gave up the traditional way of speculation and drilling as a broker and turned to big data for help.

迪佩转会曼联的是范加尔,但在穆里尼奥的领导下他完全失宠了。在2016-17赛季的上半年中,Depay仅获得了很少的机会出任联盟席位。荷兰人的自信心和状态已跌至谷底。在这种情况下,凯斯放弃了经纪人的传统投机和钻探方式,而转向大数据寻求帮助。

Case had many meetings with SciSports, a sports data analysis company from the Netherlands. The company’s founder and chief innovation officer Giles Blowell is facing The Athletic said in an interview: "Keys wants us to go to Manchester to talk to Depay. We went to his house and watched Real Madrid's Champions League game against Dortmund on the sofa. We need to figure out why he couldn't integrate into Manchester United. Tactical system. Depay explained from his own standpoint. He said that he needs to rebuild his confidence and become an important part of the team again. Finally, he said,'I need to have the freedom to play.'"

Case与来自荷兰的体育数据分析公司SciSports举行了多次会议。该公司的创始人兼首席创新官Giles Blowell面对The 竞技在接受采访时说:“基斯希望我们去曼彻斯特与德佩交谈。我们去他的房子,看着皇马在沙发上对阵多特蒙德的冠军联赛比赛。我们需要弄清楚为什么他不能融入曼彻斯特联合战术系统。德佩(Depay)从他自己的立场进行了解释。他说,他需要重建信心,并再次成为球队的重要组成部分。最后,他说,“我需要有自由发挥的能力。”

SciSports, founded in 2003, is a data analysis company that provides diverse services. The first service is to provide data for the club as an online scout. The company's database covers more than 90,000 players from more than 3,600 clubs. Clubs can subscribe to this service on a monthly basis, and this service also applies to brokerage companies. In addition to a huge database, SciSports can also provide customized reports for clubs and brokerage companies.

SciSports成立于2003年,是一家提供各种服务的数据分析公司。第一项服务是作为在线侦察员为俱乐部提供数据。该公司的数据库涵盖了来自3,600多个俱乐部的90,000多名球员。俱乐部可以每月订阅此服务,该服务也适用于经纪公司。除了庞大的数据库外,SciSports还可以为俱乐部和经纪公司提供定制的报告。

Brouville continued: "We analyzed his previous data in Eindhoven and the Dutch national team. We found that Depay needs a lot of energy on the defensive end after moving to Manchester United, and he has freedom on the offensive end. It is also severely restricted. Depay also put forward other demands: "I like to dribble from the left to break through, I like a fast-paced team, I hope I have time to use in front of me." We will include all variables. Calculating the program, and then came up with a model. In the end, five teams came to the fore, and the head coaches of these five teams won’t have any problems getting along with Depay. Lyon ranked first in the match."

布劳维尔继续说:“我们分析了他先前在埃因霍温和荷兰国家队的数据。我们发现德佩转会曼联后在防守端需要大量精力,他在进攻端拥有自由。这也受到了严格限制Depay还提出了其他要求:“我喜欢从左边运球突破,我喜欢一个快节奏的团队,希望我有时间在我面前使用。”我们将包括所有变量。计算程序,然后提出了一个模型。最后,五支球队脱颖而出,这五支球队的主教练与Depay相处毫无问题。里昂在比赛中排名第一。”

Case took the report and made contact with the Lyon team. The subsequent business operations are much simpler. On the one hand, Depay's value has shrunk significantly. On the other hand, Manchester United also wants to stop the loss in time, so the two sides hit it off. Depay has had contact with Everton, Fenerbahçe and some strong teams from Germany, Italy and Spain before, but the data shows that of all these teams, only Lyon is the most preferred. After joining Lyon, Depay surrendered 43 goals and 32 assists in 102 Ligue 1 games for the team, and once again became one of the core players of the Dutch national team.

凯斯接受了报告并与里昂团队取得了联系。随后的业务操作要简单得多。一方面,Depay的价值大幅缩水。另一方面,曼联也想及时弥补损失,因此双方达成了一致。 Depay之前曾与埃弗顿,费内巴切(Fenerbahçe)以及来自德国,意大利和西班牙的一些实力雄厚的球队进行过接触,但数据显示,在所有这些球队中,只有里昂是最受青睐的。加入里昂后,Depay在为球队进行的102场联赛1场比赛中交出了43个进球和32次助攻,并再次成为荷兰国家队的核心球员之一。

Nowadays, cooperation between brokerage companies and data companies is no longer new. For example, suppose that the agent of a young player in Manchester United finds a data analysis company and asks the company to issue a customized report on the player under its umbrella, and based on the report on the player’s current ability and potential. Describe, compare various indicators and salaries with similar players in Europe, and benefit from contract renewal negotiations based on the conclusion.

如今,经纪公司与数据公司之间的合作已不再是新鲜事物。例如,假设一名曼彻斯特联队的年轻球员的经纪人找到了一家数据分析公司,并要求该公司根据其当前能力和潜力的报告发布一份有关其伞下球员的定制报告。描述,比较与欧洲类似企业的各种指标和薪水,并从基于结论的续签谈判中受益。

SciSports alone maintains a cooperative relationship with 10 brokerage companies, including Belgium's A-Group, whose players include Belgian internationals Wiltongen and Moussa-Dembele; the Netherlands' SEG brokerage company serves Germany Pei, Van Persie and other national stars; as well as Belgium's Stirr company, Aldweirelder and Mertens and other stars are their customers.

仅SciSports就与10家经纪公司保持合作关系,其中包括比利时的A-Group,后者的参与者包括比利时国脚Wiltongen和Moussa-Dembele。荷兰的SEG经纪公司为德国裴,范佩西和其他国家级明星提供服务;以及比利时的Stirr公司,Aldweirelder和Mertens等明星都是他们的客户。

Brouville explained: "We can provide agency companies with the following services: to inspect the players they are interested in for agencies-agencies can show reports to the players, on the one hand, show sincerity, on the other hand Reflecting professionalism is more conducive to persuading the target players to belong to the banner; we can also find suitable next homes for the players; when the brokerage company expands their business, they will also need our assistance-if they establish an office in Slovakia, hope To locate the 10 most promising rising stars in Slovakia, we can design a set of algorithms according to their needs and finally achieve the goal."

布劳维尔解释说:“我们可以为代理商公司提供以下服务:检查代理商感兴趣的参与者,代理商可以向玩家展示报告,一方面表现出诚意,另一方面体现专业性更有利为了说服目标玩家属于旗帜;我们还可以为玩家找到合适的下一个家;当经纪公司扩展业务时,他们也将需要我们的帮助-如果他们在斯洛伐克建立办事处,希望找到10家斯洛伐克最有希望的新星,我们可以根据他们的需求设计一套算法,最终实现目标。”

There is more than one company like SciSports. In England, Analytics FC can provide similar services. Company founder Jeremy Steele said that he and the brokerage company First Access Sports has a close relationship and has been entrusted by it to produce a customized report for Chelsea player Odoi, which played an important role in Odoi's contract extension negotiations with Chelsea. Before Odoi, Steele also provided the same service for Boga and Bolasier.

像SciSports这样的公司不止一家。在英格兰,分析 FC可以提供类似的服务。公司创始人杰里米·斯蒂尔(Jeremy Steele)说,他和经纪公司First Access 体育与它有着密切的关系,并受其委托为切尔西球员奥多伊制作一份定制报告,这在奥多伊与切尔西的续约谈判中发挥了重要作用。在Odoi之前,斯蒂尔还为Boga和Bolasier提供了相同的服务。

In the dialogue with the brokerage company, some issues will be more sensitive. For example, what if the data analysis report makes the agent or the player overestimate their true value?

在与经纪公司的对话中,某些问题将更加敏感。例如,如果数据分析报告使代理或参与者高估了其真实价值,该怎么办?

Steele said: "We also need to be prudent, because we don't want to go back and tell people that he is not so good. But we can't tell lies, the data will not lie. If you want us to define Europe The player with the most potential, but in the end he did not meet expectations. I can only say sorry. At the same time, I do not recommend that customers continue to use this report."

斯蒂尔说:“我们也需要谨慎,因为我们不想回去告诉别人他不是那么好。但是我们不能说谎,数据也不会说谎。如果您想让我们定义欧洲最有潜力的球员,但最终他没有达到期望。我只能说对不起。同时,我不建议客户继续使用此报告。”

SciSports' Blueville agreed: "A player recently found us, and in the end we could only tell him:'We failed to find you a team that suits you.' If you force him to list five teams , But in the end no team was willing to sign him, and there will be no agency companies to cooperate with us in the future. Sometimes I just say to my agent: "You still don’t let us report it, it will disappoint you "Some agents will be very upset after hearing this, but there are also two types of agents: one is to make profits in the short term and then run away; the other is to serve players for a long time and plan their career paths for the players. To make it develop steadily, of course, they are good for themselves and their players by doing this. Directly dealing with players will also encounter problems of this kind, because some players are always blindly confident and think that they are better than anyone else.

SciSports的Blueville同意:“最近有一位球员找到了我们,最后我们只能告诉他:'我们找不到适合您的球队。'如果您强迫他列出五支球队,但最终没有一支球队愿意签下他,将来也没有代理商与我们合作。有时候我只是对经纪人说:“您仍然不愿意让我们报告一下,这会让您失望的。“有些经纪人在听到这些消息后会非常沮丧,但是还有两种类型的经纪人:一种是短期内获利然后逃跑;另一种是为玩家提供服务。长期计划并为球员规划职业道路,为了使其稳步发展,这样做当然对他们自己和他们的球员都有好处,直接与球员打交道也会遇到这类问题,因为有些球员总是盲目自信,认为自己比别人强。

For example, suppose that the end of a player's career is Real Madrid, the agent can use our report to let him stop a few more stops in the middle of joining Real Madrid, step by step to the peak. If a player can reach the height of playing for Juventus, he can be honed for a few years in a team like Atlanta, the truth is the same. This shows that with our services, the agency can better plan a player's career.

例如,假设球员职业生涯的尽头是皇家马德里,那么经纪人可以使用我们的报告,让他在加入皇家马德里的过程中再停几站,逐步达到顶峰。如果一个球员能够达到为尤文图斯效力的高度,那么他可以在亚特兰大这样的球队中磨练几年,事实是一样的。这表明通过我们的服务,代理商可以更好地规划球员的职业生涯。

In fact, the influence of the agent has penetrated into all aspects of the sport. At the same time, in the past 20 years, the application of data analysis in the football field has developed rapidly-player performance, training, tactics, set kicks and signings are all inseparable from the support of data analysis. Liverpool's success can explain the problem. Red Army Sports Director Michael Edwards is behind Dr. Graham, who has a doctorate in applied physics from the University of Cambridge, and Will Spearman, a top student of Harvard University who once worked for the European Organization for Nuclear Research.

实际上,代理商的影响已渗透到这项运动的各个方面。同时,在过去的20年中,数据分析在足球领域的应用发展迅速,球员的表现,训练,战术,踢球和签名都离不开数据分析的支持。利物浦的成功可以解释这个问题。红军体育部主任迈克尔·爱德华兹(Michael Edwards)落后于格雷厄姆(Graham)博士,后者拥有剑桥大学的应用物理学博士学位,而哈佛大学的顶尖学生威尔·斯皮尔曼(Will Spearman)曾在欧洲核研究组织工作。

After all, the relationship between modern football and data can no longer be separated. However, the freezing of three feet is not a day's cold. Big data has also come a long way on the road to affect football. Let us briefly review the history of football big data.

毕竟,现代足球与数据之间的关系不再分离。但是,冻结三英尺并不是一天的感冒。大数据在影响足球的道路上也走了很长一段路。让我们简要回顾一下足球大数据的历史。

A scout currently working for BIG4 in the Premier League said: "There are two ways of working, and these are also two ways of investigating players. We can attribute them to two movies. You like Clint Eastwood in " Do you like the character in "The Curve Conundrum", or do you like Brad Pitt in "Penalty Kick"?"

目前在英超联赛中为BIG4工作的一名侦察员说:“有两种工作方式,这也是调查球员的两种方式。我们可以将他们归因于两部电影。你喜欢克林特·伊斯特伍德在《 “曲线难题”,还是您喜欢“惩罚踢”中的布拉德·皮特?”

Eastwood's role Gus-Robel is a typical old-school scout. Then there is the role of Brad Pitt. Billy Bean in the movie is good at discovering low-cost, high-powered players based on data analysis. The conflict and confrontation between these two genres are becoming more and more fierce, and some people even think that the appearance of data analysts in the football field is to destroy the sport.

伊士活的角色古斯·罗贝尔(Gus-Robel)是典型的守旧派侦察员。然后是布拉德·皮特(Brad Pitt)的角色。电影中的比利·宾(Billy Bean)善于根据数据分析发现低成本,高能力的播放器。这两种类型之间的冲突和对抗越来越激烈,甚至有人认为足球场上的数据分析人员的出现正在破坏这项运动。

At the turn of the century, the first football players to introduce data analysis began to emerge. Prozone, the most famous sports data analysis company in the UK, was established. The then Derbyshire assistant coach Steve McLaren was the first football coach to develop and use player tracking software. Prozone installed eight cameras in every corner of the Derbyshire Stadium to collect data in all directions.

在世纪之交,引入数据分析的第一批足球运动员开始出现。成立了英国最著名的体育数据分析公司Prozone。当时的德比郡助理教练史蒂夫·迈凯轮(Steve McLaren)是第一位开发和使用球员追踪软件的足球教练。 Prozone在德比郡体育场的每个角落安装了八台摄像机,以收集各个方向的数据。

When McLaren joined Manchester United as Ferguson's assistant coach, Manchester United became the first team to pay a fee to use this system. The contract stipulates that if Manchester United can harvest a championship trophy in the 1998-99 season, they will pay Prozone £50,000 (Manchester United won the triple crown this season). By the end of 2000, six other Premier League teams had become Prozone customers. Almost at the same time, another form of data development gradually emerged, and the data analysis company Opta appeared.

迈凯轮加入曼联担任弗格森的助理教练后,曼联成为第一支付费使用此系统的车队。合同规定,如果曼联能够在1998-99赛季获得冠军奖杯,他们将付给Prozone 50,000英镑(曼联本赛季获得三冠王)。到2000年底,另外六支英超联赛球队已成为Prozone客户。几乎同时,另一种数据开发形式逐渐出现,数据分析公司Opta出现了。

The founder of Opta, Aidan Cooney, recently said when he talked about the situation in the early days of the company: "It was really difficult at the beginning. Most media are not ready to accept the concept of "efficiency data." I think If you can make people realize what is really happening on the court, and then pass on the concept of digital analysis to them, you will successfully close the distance between them and the game, and you will help them grow."

Opta的创始人艾丹·库尼(Aidan Cooney)最近在谈到公司成立初期的情况时说:“一开始确实很困难。大多数媒体还不准备接受“效率数据”的概念。如果您可以使人们意识到场上真正发生的事情,然后将数字分析的概念传递给他们,那么您将成功地拉近他们与游戏之间的距离,并帮助他们成长。”

When Cooney showed his ideas to the Daily Mirror, people angrily condemned him for trying to "Americanize" sports. Cooney said: "The so-called'Americanization' refers to people like us brazenly presenting such a passionate sport as football in such a boring way as data, like making a bus timetable. In the eyes of many people, American sports is like this. We think twice, and then tell everyone that we are not simply providing data, we started to put some gimmicks, through storytelling to make the data as concrete as possible. After the screening, I bought 20 DVDs and mailed a copy to every head coach of the Premier League, and said that if I wanted to talk, we would be waiting anytime, but the result was all in the sea. We survived this situation in the early days. I think Video analysis is suspected of exaggeration, and the correct use of data analysis is the correct answer."

当库尼向《每日镜报》(Daily Mirror)展示他的想法时,人们愤怒地谴责了他试图“体育化”美国运动。库尼说:“所谓的'美国化'是指像我们这样的人,以无聊的方式像数据一样,像制作公共汽车时间表那样无聊地展示了足球这样的热情运动。在许多人看来,美国运动就是这样我们三思而后行,然后告诉大家我们不仅仅是在提供数据,我们开始讲故事,通过讲故事使数据尽可能具体,放映后,我买了20张DVD,并将副本邮寄给每个人英超联赛的教练,并说如果我想说话,我们会随时等待,但结果全在海里。我们在这种情况下幸免于难。我认为视频分析被怀疑是夸张的,正确使用数据分析是正确的答案。”

The company's business has not improved much for a long time. Cooney said: "Football is not a big-scoring sport. The element of luck takes up a considerable proportion. Anything can happen on the court. In other sports, things are more interconnected, such as baseball. And cricket. In the early stages of football development, there are many talented players who always play a high outlier (outlier, outlier, statistical terminology, refers to one or several values ​​in the data Compared with other values, there is a big difference. From the perspective of football, the higher the contribution value to the team's victory, the greater the outlier of this player.) The Times editor Daniel Finkelstein has a column "Finkelstein" "Fink Tank" (Fink Tank), he has discovered this. Other columnists have also discovered that it contains a lot of excavable content, but it has not attracted sufficient attention."

长期以来,该公司的业务并没有太大改善。库尼说:“足球不是一项得分很高的运动。运气要素占相当大的比例。任何事情都可以在球场上发生。在其他运动中,诸如棒球,板球之类的事物之间的联系更加紧密。在足球发展中,有很多才华横溢的球员总是表现出较高的离群值(离群值,离群值,统计术语,指的是数据中的一个或多个值)与其他值相比,有很大的不同。 ,《纽约时报》编辑丹尼尔·芬克尔斯坦(Daniel Finkelstein)有一栏“芬克尔斯坦”(Finkelstein)“芬克坦克”(Fink Tank),他发现了这一点,其他专栏作家也发现了这一点。它包含很多可挖掘的内容,但是没有引起足够的重视。”

On the eve of the 2002 World Cup, Finkelstein mainly commented on current affairs. He then moved to the radio station and heard that Dr. Henry Scott had developed a calculation model for predicting football scores.

在2002年世界杯前夕,芬克尔斯坦主要评论时事。然后,他移到广播电台,听说亨利·斯科特(Henry Scott)博士开发了一种用于预测足球得分的计算模型。

Finkelstein told The Athletic reporter: "I thought and thought at the time, and suddenly I understood,'This way, the score can be predicted, the data can be collected, and the model can be generated.' The next day I wrote this idea in The Times I went to the newspaper, and I also told my colleagues that we can borrow some of Dr. Scott’s data to improve our World Cup column. Although everyone is not convinced that this can really predict the score, we use the data to calculate, Senegal has a 25% chance of defeating the defending champion France. Senegal really defeated France 1-0. If Senegal is not upset, it is estimated that no one will be interested in our data research in the future. After that, I will be in " A column was opened in The Times.

Finkelstein告诉The 体育记者:“当时我想了想,突然间我明白了,“这样,可以预测分数,可以收集数据,可以生成模型。”第二天,我在《泰晤士报》上写了这个主意,我还告诉我的同事,我们可以借用斯科特博士的一些数据来改善我们的世界杯专栏,尽管每个人都不相信这真的可以预测得分,我们使用数据进行计算,塞内加尔有25%的几率击败卫冕冠军法国。塞内加尔确实以1-0击败了法国。如果塞内加尔不沮丧,估计没有人会对我们的数据研究感兴趣之后,我将进入“时代周刊”一栏。

In the beginning, many broadcasters, reporters and clubs were not too interested in data analysis, so the weekly data analysis of the "Fink Think Tank" became the only hall for many fans to conduct data brainstorming. Finkelstein said: "This may be a bit exaggerated, but we do feel that we have become a wave of sports journalism. The first football player we met who understood the concept of the average index was Wenger. He once said:'I No interest in winning the next game.' He meant to win a series of games in a row. Combining our predictions, I wrote a column about some weird things and mysteries on the football field. I One of my favorites is, “Is the worst time to concede goals near the end of the first half?” According to the data, the answer is no. Ian Wright’s answer is very interesting. He said: “I think it’s going Near the end of halftime, because if that were the case, George Graham would turn on the hair dryer at the intermission. "Allardys is also very interested in our content, and some people patronize and talk and say nothing. Mention our column, then Allardys will say: "Oh, this is the content of the "Fink Think Tank" column!"

最初,许多广播公司,记者和俱乐部对数据分析不太感兴趣,因此“ Fink智囊团”的每周数据分析成为许多粉丝进行数据头脑风暴的唯一场所。芬克尔斯坦说:“这可能有点夸张,但我们确实感到我们已经成为体育新闻的热潮。我们遇到的第一个了解平均指数概念的足球运动员是温格。他曾经说过:'我不感兴趣在赢得下一场比赛中。”他打算连续赢得一系列比赛。结合我们的预测,我写了一篇专栏文章,介绍了足球场上的一些怪异事物和奥秘。我最喜欢的一个是:“这是在接近快要结束时丢球的最糟糕时间。上半年?”根据数据,答案是否定的。伊恩·赖特(Ian Wright)的回答非常有趣。他说:“我认为这将接近中场休息时间,因为如果是这样的话,乔治·格雷厄姆(George Graham)会在中场休息时打开吹风机。 “阿拉迪对我们的内容也非常感兴趣,有些人光顾,交谈,不说话。提及我们的专栏,然后Allardys会说:“哦,这是“ Fink智囊团”专栏的内容!”

"A lot of people treat data analysis as entertainment. But bookmakers will include data analysis as one of the elements of calculating odds. Someone even wrote a paper for the Lancaster University Department of Economics. The content is that we are How to beat a betting company in a period of time. This paper uses our calculation model to calculate the results of each Premier League, Champions League game and major national team competitions over a period of time. In fact, our model is better than described in the paper. Even more powerful, we can even simulate the results of all competitions in Europe. As a data enthusiast, I fully believe in the power of data. I am a Chelsea fan, and I still remember that we went to Bolton in 2005 to witness the Blues win. At that time I told my friend that Chelsea have a 63% chance of winning the game and we should go to Bolton. Since then, I have more confidence in the data. Analysis of anything requires data support, and football is definitely not an exception. ."

“很多人认为数据分析是一种娱乐。但是庄家会将数据分析作为计算赔率的要素之一。有人甚至为兰开斯特大学经济系撰写了一篇论文。内容是,我们是如何打赌在一段时间内,我们使用我们的计算模型来计算一段时间内每场英超联赛,冠军联赛比赛和主要国家队比赛的结果,实际上,我们的模型比本文中描述的要好。更强大的功能,我们甚至可以模拟欧洲所有比赛的结果。作为数据狂热者,我完全相信数据的力量。我是切尔西的球迷,我仍然记得我们是2005年去博尔顿见证蓝军的那时我告诉我的朋友,切尔西有63%的机会赢得比赛,我们应该去博尔顿。从那以后,我对数据有了更多的信心。任何事情的分析都需要数据的支持,而足球绝对不是一个例外。 。”

Finkelstein also put forward many hypotheses and provided many research topics for mathematicians. Scott was once the director of Oliver Wyman Consulting. He hired Dr. Ian Graham to join the company he founded, Decision Technology, which was mainly responsible for researching these topics. Ian Graham is currently head of Liverpool's research and analysis department. According to the New York Times, Graham completely conquered Red Army coach Klopp in just three weeks.

Finkelstein还提出了许多假设,并为数学家提供了许多研究主题。斯科特曾经是奥纬咨询公司的董事。他聘请了Ian Graham博士加入他创立的公司Decision Technology,该公司主要负责研究这些主题。伊恩·格雷厄姆(Ian Graham)目前是利物浦研究与分析部门的负责人。据《纽约时报》报道,格雷厄姆在短短三周内就完全征服了红军教练克洛普。

Graham used Dortmund's 0-2 loss to Mainz as an example to explain in the office, when Klopp was the Dortmund coach. Graham had never watched that game, but his mathematical model showed that Dortmund should be the winner in terms of the number of times the opponent's penalty area was scored and the chances created. At first, Liverpool executives asked Graham to use mathematical models to recommend a head coach. Graham analyzed Dortmund's data that year and concluded that Klopp's team should rank second in the standings after the end of the season, not seventh, which strengthened the Red Army's determination to hire Klopp.

格雷厄姆以多特蒙德0-2负于美因茨的情况为例,在克洛普担任多特蒙德教练时在办公室作了解释。格雷厄姆从来没有看过那场比赛,但是他的数学模型表明,就对手得分区域得分和创造机会而言,多特蒙德应该是赢家。最初,利物浦高管要求格雷厄姆使用数学模型推荐一名总教练。格雷厄姆分析了当年多特蒙德的数据,得出的结论是,克洛普的球队应该在赛季结束后排名第二,而不是第七,这加强了红军雇用克洛普的决心。

Graham once said: "I have analyzed the Bundesliga for ten seasons. That Dortmund was one of the most unlucky teams in ten years. Klopp's luck that year was really bad."

格雷厄姆曾经说过:“我已经分析了德甲十个赛季。多特蒙德是十年来最不幸的球队之一。克洛普那年的运气真是糟糕。”

It seems unreliable to pin the hope of winning on someone who has never watched the game. The teams have always believed in this, but now this situation has become the norm. A Liverpool insider explained how Graham works: "He and his team use mathematical algorithms to predict the evolution of tactics and search for players suitable for the team's tactics. The calculated results will be presented to the chief scout. In the end, Klopp made the decision. These guys are so good, if I play chess with them I can't win a game.

将赢得胜利的希望寄托在从未看过比赛的人身上似乎是不可靠的。车队一直相信这一点,但是现在这种情况已成为常态。利物浦内部人士解释了格雷厄姆的工作方式:“他和他的团队使用数学算法来预测战术的演变,并寻找适合该团队战术的球员。计算结果将呈现给首席球探。最后,克洛普做出了这些家伙真是太好了,如果我和他们下棋,我将无法赢得比赛。

Finkelstein recalled the time he worked with Dr. Graham: "Ian became the driving force of the "Fink Think Tank." Ian, Henry and I, the three of us, put a lot of effort into this column. We use A language that is particularly important for football has reinterpreted the sport and unearthed a lot of hidden content from the game itself. We discovered a long time ago that the value of goalkeepers is seriously underestimated, so now it appears that the value of the goalkeeper has reached 60 million pounds of goalkeeper is not surprising. For another example, the role of corner kicks has also been greatly exaggerated. In fact, corner kicks have a very low scoring rate. At the same time, if you want to win, it is important to pass the ball well. The most important thing, but passing still has not received enough attention.

Finkelstein回忆起他与Graham博士一起工作的时间:“伊恩成为了“芬克智囊团”的推动力。”伊恩,亨利和我们三个人在本专栏中付出了很多努力。对于足球重新诠释这项运动并从游戏本身中发掘出许多隐藏的内容而言,这一点尤为重要。我们很久以前就发现,守门员的价值被严重低估了,现在看来,守门员的价值已达到6000万磅守门员不足为奇,例如角球的作用也被大大夸大了,实际上角球的得分率非常低,同时,如果您想赢球,重要的是传球最重要的是,传球仍然没有得到足够的重视。

"After realizing these problems, the teams have armed themselves with data analysis. Ian and Henry signed a contract with Tottenham, and they provided assistance for the team's signing work. Tottenham later signed Van der Vaart, Among them are the two of them. Ian later joined Liverpool, which is remarkable, because he himself is a Red Army fan. When Fenway Group's John Henry acquired Liverpool, Ian also happened to enter the decision-making technology work. The "Fink Think Tank" came from this studio. John Henry wanted to hire decision-making technology for his own use, partly because he had read an article from the "Fink Think Tank" published in The Times. The collaboration could not be reached at that time. Because they are working with Tottenham.

“意识到了这些问题之后,两支球队已经为数据分析做好了准备。伊恩和亨利与托特纳姆热刺队签订了合同,他们为球队的签约工作提供了帮助。热刺后来又签下了范德法特,其中两个就是伊恩。后来加入利物浦,这是了不起的,因为他本人是红军迷。当芬威集团的约翰·亨利收购利物浦时,伊恩也碰巧进入了决策技术部门,“芬克智囊团”来自这个工作室。希望自己租用决策技术,部分原因是他已经阅读了《泰晤士报》上发表的“芬克智囊团”的一篇文章,当时无法达成合作,因为他们正在与热刺一起工作。

As a hardcore fan of the Red Army, Ian decided to leave the decision-making technology and join Liverpool alone. His decision was understood and supported by his studio colleagues. Before joining the Liverpool family, Ian had more than 10 years of experience in mathematical model modeling, and the Red Army was a treasure. "

作为红军的忠实拥护者,伊恩决定离开决策技术,独自加入利物浦。他的工作室同事们理解并支持他的决定。在加入利物浦大家庭之前,伊恩(Ian)在数学模型建模方面拥有10多年的经验,而红军是宝贵的财富。 ”

Ben Stevens is the director of performance and signing analysis for Crystal Palace, and he admires Liverpool's achievements in this regard. Stevens said: "When the news that Liverpool had hired a data scientist spread, many teams expressed disdain and resistance. But some teams thought it could be done by ourselves behind closed doors. We had ourselves at the time. His data researcher, Bobby Shekayi, is a top student at the London School of Economics. Shekayi is brilliant. He never watches games or studies football tactics. He spends all his energy on data research, Bobby Before, I studied finance and had nothing to do with football, but he refreshed my understanding of him every day."

本·史蒂文斯(Ben Stevens)是水晶宫(Crystal Palace)表演和签名分析的主管,他钦佩利物浦在这方面的成就。史蒂文斯说:“当利物浦雇用数据科学家的消息传开后,许多团队表示不屑和抵制。但是一些团队认为这可以由我们自己秘密完成。当时我们拥有自己。他的数据研究员鲍比·谢卡伊,是伦敦政治经济学院的一名顶级学生。谢卡伊很聪明,他从不看比赛或研究足球战术,他全力以赴地进行数据研究,鲍比以前,我学习金融与足球无关,但他每天刷新我对他的了解。”

One thing we must clarify is that there is a clear difference between data science and data analysis. Data science combines artificial intelligence, computer science, and model prediction results to extract a series of conclusions, and then data analysts and video analysts will work together to study and interpret the conclusions of data scientists.

我们必须澄清的一件事是,数据科学与数据分析之间存在明显的区别。数据科学将人工智能,计算机科学和模型预测结果结合在一起,以提取一系列结论,然后数据分析师和视频分析师将共同研究和解释数据科学家的结论。

Stevens of Crystal Palace explained: “Michael Edwards is a veteran data analysis expert who worked for Portsmouth 10 years ago. He did a great job and is now Liverpool’s sports director. Former rich Rum data analyst Andy Scolding is currently the signings supervisor of the Glasgow Rangers. Lawrence Stewart has studied effectiveness analysis and has now been promoted to the signings supervisor of RB Leipzig. Rogers was coaching in Leicester City There is an assistant named Chris Davis. When I first met him, he was a data analyst in Swansea. Finally, there was me, currently in charge of signings at Crystal Palace."

水晶宫的史蒂文斯(Stevens)解释说:“迈克尔·爱德华兹(Michael Edwards)是一位资深的数据分析专家,十年前曾在朴次茅斯工作过。他做得很好,现在是利物浦的体育总监。前富朗姆酒数据分析师Andy Scolding目前是格拉斯哥流浪者队的签约主管。劳伦斯·斯图尔特(Lawrence Stewart)研究了有效性分析,现已晋升为莱比锡RB的签约主管。罗杰斯在莱切斯特城执教。有个叫克里斯​​·戴维斯的助手。当我第一次遇到他时,他是斯旺西的数据分析师。最后是我,目前在水晶宫负责签字。”

What happened to data analysts in the early years? Stevens smiled and said: "The older generation of data analysts have had a difficult time. Now in retrospect, I really said that I don't want to suffer the second crime again, but I have to say that it was indeed a trial. We are often asked:'Why are you telling me this? Do you know football?' This is indeed a good learning experience for analysts who have just graduated from college and think that they know some football. The steadfast data analysts have all retreated. Now the data analysts are in the middle of the team, relaxed and comfortable. When some people complain about a little difficulty, I always think of the unbearable time in the past. .

早期数据分析师发生了什么?史蒂文斯笑了笑说:“老一辈的数据分析师经历了一段艰难的时期。现在回想起来,我真的说我不想再遭受第二次犯罪,但是我必须说,那确实是一次审判。我们经常被问到:“你为什么告诉我这个?你知道足球吗?”对于刚从大学毕业并认为自己了解足球的分析师来说,这确实是一个很好的学习经历。坚定的数据分析师都已退缩,现在数据分析师处于团队中间,轻松而舒适。抱怨有点困难,我总是想起过去无法忍受的时间。

"For me, this is a particularly difficult task. I used to work for the Southampton youth team as an intern, and was transferred to the first team in the 2008-09 season. The gap between this is too big. At the beginning At work, the only tools we have on hand are the home VHS tapes. Whenever I play away games, I will go with the team, and then they will give me a video of the game. Then I have to copy the video to a DVD, and we also Use SCSI hard drives. After the game, you need to copy these materials to the hard drive, and then give them to the courier riding the electric bike, let them send to the Prozone headquarters in Leeds, and then they will process the data within 24 hours. Everything at that time was far less convenient than it is now. Sometimes after the away game, you wait for the courier to be unavailable, and everyone needs to wait for you on the bus.

“对我来说,这是一项特别艰巨的任务。我曾经在南安普敦青年队工作,作为实习生,并在2008-09赛季被转入一线队。两者之间的差距太大。工作时,我们仅有的工具是家用VHS录像带。每当我玩游戏时,我都会和团队一起去,然后他们会给我一个游戏视频,然后我必须将视频复制到DVD上。 ,我们还使用SCSI硬盘驱动器。游戏结束后,您需要将这些材料复制到硬盘驱动器上,然后交给骑自行车的快递员,让他们发送到利兹的Prozone总部,然后他们将在24小时内处理数据,当时的一切都比现在方便得多,有时在客场比赛后,您等待快递员不可用,每个人都需要在公共汽车上等您。

"In Southampton, we have two people. Everything is done by both of us. It’s good now, and suddenly we are also a team member. There is nothing we can’t handle. We can even get information in the game. Send it to the coaching bench.” Now we can often see data analysts wearing headphones communicating with the coaching staff on the sidelines. "

“在南安普敦,我们有两个人。一切都由我们两个人完成。现在很好,突然之间我们也是团队成员。我们无法处理任何事情。我们甚至可以在游戏中获取信息。将其发送出去到教练席。”现在我们经常可以看到数据分析师戴着耳机与教练人员在场外交流。”

Nowadays, it is very common for data analysts to wear headphones to communicate with coaches on the sidelines in real time. Stevens recalled: "I used to talk to Allardys directly through headphones. Now it's funny to think of it. I wore headphones and watched the game leisurely. Suddenly he got angry and gave me a meal. Hair. I was dumbfounded at the time, "He seemed to be saying something to me, but I didn't even listen to a word. Then I pretended to be calm and asked politely: "Boss, what did you just say?" Then he snarled his instructions at me again, this time I understood, I quickly wrote them down. He must have been offended by something just now. "

如今,数据分析师经常戴着耳机在场外与教练实时沟通。史蒂文斯回忆说:“我以前常常直接通过耳机与阿拉迪斯交谈。现在想起来很有趣。我戴着耳机,悠闲地看比赛。他突然生气了,给我吃饭了。头发。当时我傻眼了, “他似乎在对我说些什么,但我什至没有听一句话。然后我假装保持镇定,礼貌地问:“老板,你刚才怎么说?”然后他再次向我咆哮着,这一次我明白了,我很快就写下来了。刚才他一定得罪了他。 ”

Data and intuition, the conflict between the two seems to be natural, but many interviewees believe that the two are not incompatible. For example, although Liverpool has a PhD in applied physics presiding over the work, the team also has many old-school scouts who have footprints in every corner of the world. However, although they are called scouts, the scope of these people's work is much more than just investigating players. They also need to be rooted locally and maintain good relationships with local brokerage companies to ensure that they are always one step ahead of their competitors.

数据和直觉上,两者之间的冲突似乎是自然而然的,但许多受访者认为两者并不矛盾。例如,尽管利物浦拥有应用物理学博士学位,但该团队还拥有许多老派球探,足迹遍布世界的每个角落。但是,尽管他们被称为童子军,但这些人的工作范围不仅限于调查玩家。他们还必须扎根于当地,并与当地经纪公司保持良好关系,以确保它们始终领先于竞争对手。

Although Liverpool has a group of data scientists and analysts playing for the team, traditional scouting methods are still the mainstream. A scout from Liverpool who was investigating opponents, after 23 consecutive visits, issued a sufficiently detailed report, and then his report was sent to the data analysis department. These data come from the naked eye, not mathematical calculation models. In this way, Liverpool found that Brighton always jumped high when facing a direct free kick. The news was quickly communicated to Coutinho, who scored a free kick in Liverpool's game against Brighton in December 2017 and helped the team win the game. For now, the best teams are often those with the most understanding of the various departments. All the people interviewed by The Athletic think that to do a good job of signings, relying on data science is not enough.

尽管利物浦有一组数据科学家和分析师在为该团队效力,但传统的侦查方法仍然是主流。利物浦的一名侦察员在连续23次访问之后正在调查对手,他发布了足够详细的报告,然后将其报告发送给数据分析部门。这些数据来自肉眼而非数学计算模型。这样,利物浦发现布莱顿在面对直接任意球时总是跳高。该消息迅速传达给库蒂尼奥,库蒂尼奥在2017年12月对阵布莱顿的利物浦比赛中获得任意球,并帮助球队赢得了比赛。目前,最好的团队通常是对各个部门最了解的团队。 The Athletic采访的所有人们都认为,仅仅依靠数据科学来做好引签工作是不够的。

Simon Barno, who was once Opta’s marketing director, said: “Now it’s different from the past. There is no longer a wall between the nerd in front of the computer and the ‘real football guy’.”

曾经担任Opta市场总监的西蒙·巴诺(Simon Barno)说:“现在与过去不同。在电脑前的书呆子和“真正的足球人”之间不再有墙。

He joked: “Everything we do is to make customers no longer be wary of data science. The previous confrontation between data practitioners and traditional scouts was done deliberately. In fact, the top data analysts are very A great translator. When communicating with coaches, they will not be full of formula models. Their suggestions on tactics or signings are all authentic football language. The cultural difference between data and football has disappeared. Sometimes for one For a signing target worth several million pounds, the agent does not cooperate and the scouts are not optimistic, but a highly credible due diligence report by the data worker can bring both parties back to the negotiating table. Analysis and traditional scouting work have formed a complementary relationship."

他开玩笑说:“我们所做的一切都是让客户不再对数据科学保持警惕。数据从业者与传统侦察员之间的先前对抗是故意进行的。实际上,顶级数据分析师是非常出色的翻译。与教练交流时,他们不会充满公式模型。他们对战术或签名的建议都是真实的足球语言。数据和足球之间的文化差异已经消失。对于价值数百万英镑的签名目标,有时代理人不会合作,侦察员也不容乐观,但是数据工作者的高度可信的尽职调查报告可以使双方回到谈判桌前。分析和传统的侦查工作已形成互补关系。”

Manchester United used to be an extreme example. The Red Devils scouts are located in 30 countries. By the time Ferguson retired, Manchester United had 45 scouts. The salary and business expenses paid to the scouts each year were a lot of money. Few teams can have such strong financial resources as Manchester United.

曼联曾经是一个极端的例子。红魔童子军分布在30个国家/地区。弗格森退休时,曼联已经拥有45名球探。每年支付给童军的薪水和商业开支是一笔不菲的钱。很少有球队能拥有像曼联这样强大的财务资源。

Analytics FC mainly provides services for some Champions League teams, in addition to Liz United, West Ham United and West Brom. Before the winter window opened in January 2019, Steele, the founder of Analytics FC, called Leeds United Sports Director Victor Horta. Steele told Victor who is the star player of the British crown.

除了利兹联,西汉姆联和西布朗之外,Analytics FC还主要为某些冠军联赛球队提供服务。在2019年1月冬季窗户打开之前,Analytics FC的创始人斯蒂尔(Steele)称为利兹联体育总监Victor Horta。斯蒂尔告诉维克多谁是英国王冠的明星球员。

Steele said: "We were talking about Daniel James at the time. It's a shame that Leeds United's deal with Daniel James was aborted at the last minute, but his performance at Manchester United proved our vision. Watching Daniel James played eight games. After nine championships, we told Victor that they must sign the Welsh guy right away. Victor's reaction was,'Please, are you kidding me?' We said:'Absolutely not.' Analysis is full of trust."

斯蒂尔说:“当时我们在谈论丹尼尔·詹姆斯。可惜的是,利兹联队与丹尼尔·詹姆斯的交易在最后一刻被中止,但他在曼联的表现证明了我们的愿景。观看丹尼尔·詹姆斯出战八场。九场之后冠军,我们告诉维克多,他们必须立即签下威尔士人,维克多的反应是:“拜托,你在开玩笑吗?”我们说:“绝对不会。”分析充满了信任。”

What did our data analysis foresee? We just suggested that Leeds United sign Daniel James, who immediately disrupted Blue Moon's defense in the FA Cup against Manchester City. Steele said: "Our platform is actually predictive analysis. The CEOs of each team and I say this: Statistics is, in one aspect, the study of history. Data tells you what happened in the past. It is possible to predict which players will play better. Our calculation program will show that if a player continues to do X, then the possible consequence is Y. Our calculation program is very similar to Liverpool’s. Our calculation process Every action of the player will be taken into consideration. For example, if a player takes the ball in the center line, the probability of scoring at this time is 0.0001%. This player makes a long pass and his forward comfortably holds the ball in the penalty area. At this time, the team’s scoring probability has risen from 0.0001% to 2%. Every player action will have a positive or negative impact on the team’s score."

我们的数据分析预见了什么?我们只是建议利兹联签下丹尼尔亚愽彩票·詹姆斯(Daniel James),后者立即中断了蓝月亮在足总杯对曼城的防守。斯蒂尔说:“我们的平台实际上是预测性分析。我和每个团队的首席执行官都这样说:一方面统计是对历史的研究。数据可以告诉您过去发生的事情。可以预测哪些球员会游戏会更好,我们的计算程序将显示,如果一名球员继续做X,那么可能的结果是Y。我们的计算程序与利物浦的非常相似。我们的计算过程将考虑到球员的每一个动作,例如,如果一名球员将球拿到了中线,则此刻得分的概率为0.0001%。这位球员长传,他的前锋舒适地将球保持在罚球区,这时,球队的得分概率上升了从0.0001%到2%。每位球员的动作都会对球队的得分产生正面或负面的影响。”

Steele's personal background is also extraordinary. Steele started as a Chelsea coach and coached Mount and Abraham in their teenage years. He later became a scout for Brentford and established his own data analysis company. Under the recommendation of Leeds United Director Horta, Steele also served as the sports director of three clubs under the same consortium last summer. The three clubs are Paphos, Cyprus, Riga, Latvia and Rodina Moscow. Because of previous coaching and scouting experience, Steele has completely unified statistics and intuition.

斯蒂尔的个人背景也非同寻常。斯蒂尔起初是切尔西的教练,并在青少年时期执教过芒特和亚伯拉罕。后来他成为布伦特福德的侦察员,并建立了自己的数据分析公司。在利兹联队主席奥尔塔(Horta)的推荐下,斯蒂尔于去年夏天还担任了同一财团旗下三家具乐部的体育总监。这三个俱乐部分别是帕福斯,塞浦路斯,里加,拉脱维亚和罗迪娜·莫斯科。由于以前的教练和侦察经验,斯蒂尔拥有完全统一的统计数据和直觉。

Steele said: "Big data is not nuclear weapons. It does not mean that once you have the support of data, you can immediately sign top stars one by one, but data can reduce risks and gain a competitive advantage. Most of the time. The team treats data analysis as the first filter. In Analytics In the TransferLab function on FC, you can filter the key data to filter the players you need in 90 leagues around the world.

斯蒂尔说:“大数据不是核武器。这并不意味着一旦获得数据支持,您就可以立即一个一个地与顶级明星签约,但是数据可以减少风险并获得竞争优势。在大多数情况下。该团队将数据分析视为第一个过滤器。 在FC上的TransferLab功能中,您可以过滤关键数据以过滤全球90个联赛中所需的球员。

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